Polls: In South Carolina, it's Mitt Romney vs. Newt Gingrich

CHARLESTON, S.C. — Four polls out Thursday paint the same picture: Saturday’s primary here has become a two-man race between Mitt Romney and a resurgent Newt Gingrich.

Gingrich has said South Carolina’s primary may be a make-or-break moment for his campaign, and he’s benefited from clear momentum and a rush of support in the final push ahead of Saturday’s vote. Gingrich appears to be winning his playoff battle with Rick Santorum to emerge as the candidate to unify the conservative, anti-Romney vote behind him.

Public Policy Polling announced Thursday afternoon that the former House speaker actually led Romney 34 to 28 in their first night of tracking. Romney’s position has held steady, but the automated Democratic pollster said Gingrich rose 11 points since its last state poll two weeks ago.

Romney held a 10-point lead in an NBC News/Marist poll posted earlier Thursday, but those numbers showed significant slippage from Monday, the night of a debate for which Gingrich earned high marks and Romney came under fire on several fronts — including his refusal to release his tax returns. On Monday, before the debate, Romney led 37 to 22 in the poll. On Tuesday, he was up only 31 to 26.

A POLITICO poll of likely South Carolina voters that was in the field through Wednesday night put Romney, at 37 percent, up seven over Gingrich. But the poll also measured intensity of support: When voters were not prompted by a list to choose from, but asked to name who they’ll vote for, Romney’s lead over Gingrich slipped to 31 to 29. Among those who say they will “definitely” support their candidate of choice, the two essentially tied, with Romney at 23 percent and Gingrich at 22 percent.

An American Research Group poll out Thursday put Gingrich ahead of Romney by one point, 33 to 32. An ARG poll taken a week earlier had Romney on top, 29 to 25. ARG is an automated poll, which is regarded as less credible than those in which operators make the calls.

A CNN/Opinion Research Center poll out Wednesday, which put Romney up 10, found that among those who identify as tea partiers, Gingrich is at 31 percent — up 10 from the start of the month. Romney leads by 30 among Republicans who don’t consider themselves part of the tea party.

Though Gingrich will be aiming to capitalize on his endorsement by Rick Perry on Thursday, there’s evidence that it won’t change the dynamics in a significant way. Of the just 4 percent who backed Perry in POLITICO’s poll, there was an even split between Romney and Gingrich when asked to name their second choice.

Meanwhile, Santorum has slipped, coming in at fourth, behind Ron Paul, in several of the surveys.

Multiple polls show that the debates have been key for Gingrich. The more of the 16 that someone has watched, the more likely they are to back Gingrich. PPP found that of the 56 percent of South Carolina voters say they watched Monday, Gingrich leads Romney 43 to 27. Among those who missed it, Romney leads 29 to 22.